Discussions surrounding Sierra Leone's 2028 presidential election are increasingly focusing on the pre-election period, with some observers suggesting that the shaping of electoral conditions has already begun. Only amateurs wait until election day to rig an election, according to this perspective. The argument posits that while amateurs might wait until election day to influence results, a more sophisticated approach involves altering rules, positioning institutions, and shifting the electoral landscape well in advance. The more sophisticated contest begins much earlier—when the rules are written, institutions are positioned, and the electoral terrain itself begins to shift. If the regulations governing future presidential elections, electoral thresholds, and political geography are currently undergoing changes, the 2028 election process may be considered already in motion. If the rules governing future presidential elections, electoral thresholds, and political geography are being altered now, the 2028 election may already be underway. This perspective suggests that the most significant risks to the integrity of the next election might not manifest on election day itself, as critical decisions could have already been finalized. The greatest danger to the next election may therefore not arrive on election day. By then, the decisive work may already have been done. The decisive work, according to this view, may already be underway, with professionals focusing on the rules today rather than waiting for the election date. The rules may have been rewritten. The geography may have shifted. Institutions may have been weakened, distrusted, or drawn into the contest. Only amateurs wait until election day. The professionals begin with the rules today.
Constitutional Debates Matter
Sierra Leone's ongoing constitutional debate holds significance that extends beyond the parliamentary chambers. Sierra Leone’s current constitutional debate matters far beyond Parliament. Section 108 of the 1991 Constitution was intentionally designed to make constitutional amendments more challenging to enact than ordinary legislation. Section 108 of the 1991 Constitution deliberately makes constitutional change more difficult than ordinary legislation. This inherent difficulty shows the principle that a Constitution's importance lies in its ability to place certain decisions beyond the easy influence of transient political majorities. A Constitution matters precisely because it places some decisions beyond the easy reach of ordinary political majorities.
The legitimacy of a constitution relies not only on the intentions behind its creation but also on fostering public confidence in its framework. Constitutional legitimacy depends not only on good intentions. It depends on public confidence. Critics argue that the Constitution functions as a national cloth and should not be cut and tailored so precisely to suit the government currently in power that it excludes the protection of the wider populace. The Constitution is a national cloth. It must not be cut and tailored so tightly around the government of the day that the rest of the country is left outside its protection. Sierra Leone has a history of significant investment and suffering in its journey towards constitutional governance, suggesting that a casual approach to the foundational rules holding the Republic together would be ill-advised. Sierra Leone has traveled too far, suffered too much, and invested too heavily in constitutional government to be casual about the rules that hold the Republic together. A key consideration in these debates is whether the rules being established today would maintain their perception of fairness if, in the future, they were to be enforced by political adversaries. The question is whether the rules being established today would still seem fair if, tomorrow, they were enforced by the individuals we currently oppose.
Shaping the Electoral Terrain
Electoral systems fundamentally shape the behavior required to secure victory, rather than merely producing winners. Electoral systems do more than produce winners. They shape the behaviour required to win. These systems dictate the strategies political actors must employ to succeed, influencing everything from campaign focus to coalition building. Administrative districts become more than geographical demarcations once electoral law assigns political consequences to performance within these areas. Administrative districts are not merely lines on a map once electoral law attaches political consequences to performance across districts. The allocation of resources, voter registration efforts, and campaign messaging often become highly localized, driven by the specific electoral weight and demographic characteristics of each district. The current electoral landscape in Sierra Leone may reflect significant alterations to established rules and a shift in political geography. Additionally, institutions designed to uphold electoral integrity may have been weakened, eroded by distrust, or drawn into the broader political contest.
The Legacy of Distrust
The disputed 2023 election in Sierra Leone left a significant deficit of trust among various political actors and the public. The disputed 2023 election left behind a deficit of trust. This lack of confidence has permeated discussions regarding future electoral processes. The aftermath of the 2023 polls saw accusations of irregularities and a general sense of unease concerning the integrity of the electoral commission and related institutions. Public perception of fairness, key for the legitimacy of any election, was significantly impacted. The environment created by the disputed results contributes to heightened scrutiny over any proposed changes to electoral laws or administrative boundaries ahead of the 2028 presidential election. This prevailing distrust forms a backdrop for current debates about constitutional amendments, the roles of electoral bodies, and the geographical organization of voting districts, with stakeholders closely monitoring decisions that could influence the next polls.